## New Polling Model Predicts Significant Losses for Labour and Rise of Reform UK
A newly developed polling model suggests a potentially dramatic shift in British politics if an election were held tomorrow. The Nowcast Model, which combines nationwide polls while factoring in recent trends and historical accuracy of pollsters, paints a concerning picture for the Labour Party under Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The model projects that Labour could lose up to 39% of its Cabinet members. Specifically, nine out of 23 elected cabinet ministers (excluding those in the House of Lords) are at risk of losing their seats. A significant portion – seven of these potential losses – would be attributed to a surge in support for Reform UK.
Here’s a breakdown of key Labour figures potentially facing defeat:
* Angela Rayner (Deputy Prime Minister), with a majority of 6,791 in Ashton-under-Lyme.
* Yvette Cooper (Home Secretary) – currently holding a 6,630-vote majority in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley.
* Ed Miliband (Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero), whose Doncaster North seat boasts a 9,126 majority.
* John Healey (Secretary of State for Defence) – facing challenges in Rawmarsh and Conisbrough with an 8,539 majority.
* Bridget Phillipson (Secretary of State for Education) – her Houghton and Sunderland South seat has a 7,169 majority.
* Jonathan Reynolds (Secretary of State for Business and Trade), facing a tough battle in Stalybridge and Hyde with an 8,539 majority.
* Lisa Nandy (Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport) – potentially seeing the largest swing against Labour, with a 9,549 vote lead in Wigan.
* Wes Streeting (Health Secretary), whose Ilford North seat is vulnerable.
* Shabana Mahmood (Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice), facing an independent challenge in Birmingham Ladywood.
Beyond Labour, the model also indicates potential setbacks for the Conservative Shadow Cabinet. Six prominent Conservatives are at risk:
* Victoria Atkins (Shadow Environment Secretary)
* Richard Holden (Shadow Paymaster General)
* Alex Burgart (Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland)
* Helen Whately (Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions)
* Alan Mak (Shadow Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology)
* Rebecca Harris (Opposition Chief Whip)
These losses represent 27% of the Conservatives’ shadow cabinet.
The projected outcomes reflect a broader forecast indicating waning public trust in Labour following unpopular policy decisions. The model predicts that Labour could lose a total of 198 seats – nearly half of its MPs, including a near-total collapse of their representation in Scotland. Having secured 37 of the 57 Scottish constituencies in July 2024 by capitalizing on the SNP’s difficulties, Labour is now projected to relinquish 34 of those seats (92% of their Scottish contingent) to a resurgent SNP.
“The data suggests that public sentiment has shifted significantly,” says an analyst familiar with the Nowcast Model. “Labour’s initial gains are now at serious risk.”
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is poised for substantial gains, potentially securing 142 seats and overtaking the Conservatives to become the second-largest party in Parliament. This would place Farage in the role of Leader of the Opposition.
The Conservative Party is predicted to gain only 13 seats, leaving a right-wing coalition between the Conservatives and Reform UK short of a majority with just 281 seats.
A more probable outcome according to the model involves Labour forming a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats (retaining their 72 seats) and the SNP (holding 45 seats), creating a narrow majority of five seats – totaling 330 seats.
The next General Election is scheduled for 2029, but local elections are on the horizon in May, where councillors will be elected across 23 authorities, with 15 being defended by the Conservatives and just one by Labour.
