## Shifting Political Winds: A New Look at Party Favorability & 2026 Election Outlook
Recent polling indicates a significant shift in public sentiment towards political parties, with Democrats experiencing their lowest favorability rating ever recorded this month. For the first time in over a decade, Republicans are viewed more favorably than Democrats.
Key Findings from the Fox News Survey
- Republican Favorability: 44% favorable, 56% unfavorable (-10 net rating).
- Democratic Favorability: 41% favorable, 56% unfavorable (-15 net rating).
This represents a notable change from last summer when the perception was reversed; Republicans were viewed negatively by 14 points while Democrats held a mere 6-point deficit.
Party Loyalty & Shifting Dynamics
The decline in Democratic favorability stems largely from within their own ranks. While 87% of self-identified Democrats expressed approval of the party last summer, that number has dropped to 77%. Conversely, Republican loyalty remains relatively strong, with 85% of Republicans holding a favorable view today – a slight increase from 83% in 2024.
“The higher favorability rating for the Republican Party is entirely due to Democrats feeling less favorable toward their party than Republicans do toward theirs,” notes Democrat Chris Anderson, co-director of the Fox News surveys alongside Republican Daron Shaw. “This shift alone isn’t likely to guarantee midterm success for the GOP, as Democrats overwhelmingly indicate they’ll support their party and Independents continue to favor Democrats.”
2026 Election Projection & Voter Preferences
Despite the current favorable ratings, if elections were held today, voters would still lean towards the Democratic candidate in their district by a margin of 7 points (49% vs. 42%). This mirrors results from April 2017 during Donald Trump’s first term.
- Democratic Support: Primarily driven by strong backing from their base and a two-to-one preference among Independents (40% Dem to 18% GOP).
- Key Demographic Groups Supporting Democrats: At least six in ten Black voters (68%), those under age 30 (60%), and women with a college degree (59%).
Republican Challenges & Opportunities
Republicans are facing challenges, including:
- Independent Disapproval: A significant majority of Independents hold negative views of both parties, but express greater disapproval toward Republicans (72% unfavorable vs. 66% for Democrats).
- Reduced Party Loyalty: Fewer Republicans (92%) and 2024 Trump supporters (86%) are backing the GOP candidate compared to Democrats (97%) and 2024 Harris supporters (91%).
“The congressional ballot results aren’t surprising, as the out-party typically performs well in an administration’s first midterms,” explains Shaw. “Republicans capitalized on this trend in 2010 and 2022, while Democrats did so in 2018— largely due to heightened engagement from their respective bases. For Republicans to succeed, they need to either retain the Independents and Democrats who supported Trump in 2024 or invigorate their own base without a presidential candidate on the ballot.”
Voter Satisfaction & Looking Ahead
The survey also explored voter satisfaction with their 2024 vote. While an overall 85% expressed contentment, there has been a slight decline in satisfaction among those who supported Trump – down from 92% four years ago and 97% eight years prior. Harris supporters remain overwhelmingly satisfied (90%).
Young Voters: A Key Battleground
Young voters, particularly those under age 30, continue to be a significant demographic force. The survey shows the Republican congressional candidate is underperforming Trump’s 2024 showing among this group (47% for Trump vs. 33% for Republicans today). Furthermore, young voters’ views of the Democratic Party have shifted slightly more positive (50% favorable, 48% unfavorable) compared to last July.
“The age gap is back in these data,” notes Shaw. “However, this group remains highly volatile – often absent from midterm elections and particularly responsive to short-term developments.”
This Fox News survey was conducted April 18-21, 2025, by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), encompassing interviews with a sample of 1,104 registered voters. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points for the full sample.
