Recent polling data indicates a strengthening position for the Labor government following the implementation of tariffs linked to US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” measures.
According to Roy Morgan Research, if an election were held today, Labor would secure another term with a larger majority. The latest survey reveals a shift in voter preference; Labor’s share of the vote rose by 0.5 percentage points over the past week to 53.5 percent, while the Coalition’s support declined by the same margin to 46.5 percent on a two-party preferred basis.
While these figures reflect a positive trend for Labor, public sentiment regarding the nation’s direction remains divided. Only 33% of Australians believe the country is heading in the right direction, compared to 52% who hold an opposing view.
On primary vote support, Labor gained 0.5 percentage points this week reaching 32.5 percent. The Coalition saw a more significant drop, losing 2 percentage points to reach 33%. This marks the closest the two major parties have been on primary votes since October of last year.
The political landscape also witnessed shifts amongst smaller parties:
- Support for the Greens increased to 13.5 percent.
- One Nation garnered 6 percent of support.
- Other parties collectively reached 6 percent.
- Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots achieved a record high of 1.5 percent.
Conversely, support for independent candidates decreased by 1.5 percentage points to reach 9 percent.
“The ALP has now maintained a lead in five consecutive Roy Morgan surveys since early March,” stated Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine. “They have clearly gained the upper hand in the initial phase of the campaign following the release of the federal budget.”
Levine attributed the Coalition’s struggles to several factors, including perceived political missteps. She specifically cited Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s comments regarding his preferred prime ministerial residence at Kirribilli House and a subsequent change in policy concerning work-from-home arrangements for public servants.
Furthermore, Levine noted that Dutton’s association with Donald Trump – despite the opposition leader’s vocal criticism of the tariffs – proved detrimental. “This perceived link has undoubtedly been a negative factor for the Coalition,”
she explained.
