A startling new poll paints a dramatically altered landscape for British politics, forecasting that Reform UK is poised to become the dominant political force, eclipsing Labour in both size and influence. The findings, released by More In Common, indicate a significant shift in voter sentiment, with Labour experiencing substantial losses across the nation’s parliamentary constituencies.
According to the projections, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could secure an impressive 180 seats within Parliament – a staggering figure representing 80 percent of those currently held by Labour. This outcome would result in a near-tie between Reform and the Conservative Party, with each party projected to hold 165 seats.
The implications extend far beyond simply shifting numbers; several high-ranking Labour figures are predicted to be unseated. Nine Cabinet ministers – including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Chancellor Pat McFadden, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defence Secretary John Healey, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy and Chief Whip Alan Campbell – face the prospect of losing their seats to Reform UK.
Furthermore, the poll suggests a significant redistribution of power. Labour is anticipated to concede 153 seats to Reform, with an additional 64 falling to the Conservative Party and 23 to the Scottish National Party (SNP). A smaller number – five – could be claimed by independent candidates.
Interestingly, even Health Secretary Wes Streeting faces an uphill battle. Despite publicly stating he wouldn’t seek a safer seat, projections indicate an independent challenger will secure victory in Ilford North. Conservative frontbenchers Rebecca Harris and Victoria Atkins are also predicted to lose their seats to Reform UK.
Luke Tryl, the UK Director of More In Common, offered his assessment: “We are a considerable distance from a General Election, and predicting outcomes is inherently challenging. However, it’s undeniably clear that British politics has fractured to an unprecedented degree. The coalition supporting Keir Starmer’s government has disintegrated across both the left and right. Reform UK emerges as the primary beneficiary of this period, with our model suggesting they could become the largest party in Parliament – a prospect that seemed inconceivable just twelve months prior.”
Tryl continued, highlighting Labour’s predicament: “Labour now finds itself positioned on the wrong side of public disillusionment and risks enduring historic losses within its traditional strongholds. This includes potentially seeing Wales’ formerly loyal Labour strongholds shift to Reform, while Scotland’s central belt could fall to the SNP and Yorkshire to Reform.”
Nigel Farage, embracing the momentum, declared: “We have all the momentum.”
